Dale Zimmerman - Colloquium Speaker

Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa
Date: 
Thursday, October 29, 2020 - 3:15pm
Colloquium Title: 
The Middle-Seed Anomaly: Why Does It Occur in Some Sports Tournaments but Not Others?

Abstract:

Previously published statistical analyses of NCAA Division I Men’s Tournament (“March Madness”) game outcomes have revealed that the relationship between tournament seed and the time-aggregated number of third-round (“Sweet 16”) appearances for the middle half of the seeds exhibits a statistically and practically significant departure from monotonicity. In particular, the 8- and 9-seeds combined appear less often than any one of seeds 10-12. In this article, we show that a similar “middle-seed anomaly” also occurs in the NCAA Division I Women’s Tournament but does not occur in several other major sports tournaments that are similar in structure to March Madness. We offer partial explanations for the presence of a middle-seed anomaly in the NCAA basketball tournaments and its absence in the others, which are based on the functional form of the relationship between team strength and seed specific to each tournament and on special advantages given to the top one or two seeds. Although these explanations can account for the existence of middle-seed anomalies in the NCAA basketball tournaments, their larger-than-expected magnitudes, which arise mainly from the overperformance of seeds 10-12 in the second round, remain enigmatic. Note: This is joint work with Hong Beng Lim.

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Topic: Colloquia: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa

Time: Oct 29, 2020 03:15 PM Central Time (US and Canada)

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Meeting ID: 970 2130 9544