Abstract:

The COVID-19 Forecast Hub, starting in March 2019, collected forecasts of COVID-19 cumulative and incident deaths at the state and national level. In the following months, the Hub expanded its collection to include forecasts of hospitalizations and cases including at the county level. Probabilistic forecasts are provided using a set of 23-quantiles ranging from 1%-tile to the 99%-tile. A probabilistic ensemble forecast is constructed by quantile averaging individual model forecasts. Both the individual model forecasts and the ensemble forecasts are used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for use in their COVID-19 forecasting as well as other downstream partners, e.g., fivethirtyeight.com. Throughout this talk, Dr. Niemi will present both practical and statistical issues with running a real-time forecasting service including dealing with issues such as data backfill, model evaluation with missing forecasts, and ensemble construction.

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Topic: Colloquia: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa

Time: Oct 15, 2020 03:15 PM Central Time (US and Canada)

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Meeting ID: 970 2130 9544